2月1日雅思大作文真题：15岁以下人口增多有什么影响？

Figures show that in some countries, there is an ever-increasing proportion of population aged 15 or younger. What do you think are the effects of current and future on those countries?
 

本题是新题。
在某些国家，15岁以下的孩子数量增多，这会给这些国家的现在和将来造成什么后果？

这个问题可能会难住很多烤鸭。其实，如果我们稍微沉下心来想想，我们就能找到一些思路。比如：孩子多了，会不会给父母的工作生活带来压力？会不会给学校的教学质量带来压力？会不会给社会安全带来压力？而在未来，当这些孩子长大，会不会给就业带来压力？从这些思路去写，本题还是有很多内容的。

老师笔记

01、In some poorest countries in Africa, there is an ever-increasing number of people who are aged 15 or under. With the growing young population, the future of these countries can be either full of threats or opportunities. 

在非洲一些最贫穷的国家，15岁或15岁以下的人越来越多。随着年轻人口的增长，这些国家的未来要么充满威胁，要么充满机遇。

解析
（1）本段为开头段，直接点题，并提出自己的观点。
（2）ever-increasing 不断增加的
（3）growing 增长的
（4）threat 威胁

02、For the present, it is clear that the current scenes across Africa are mostly bad due to problems related to the youngsters. One problem is that the weight of the young generation on the shoulders of the relatively few adults tends to drag down economic growth rates. Another problem is youth unemployment because it appears that there would be not enough jobs waiting for them when they grow a little older. Alongside youth unemployment, violent crime is among the highest on the planet. Such negative realities illustrate the threats with Africa’s growing young population.

就目前而言，很明显，由于与年轻人有关的问题，非洲目前的情况大多是糟糕的。一个问题是年轻一代给相对较少的成年人带来的负重往往会拖累经济增长率。另一个问题是青年失业，因为当他们长大一点时，似乎没有足够的工作等着他们。除了青年失业之外，暴力犯罪也是地球上的犯罪之一。这些消极的现实说明了非洲不断增长的青年人口所面临的威胁。

解析
（1）本段论述青少年人口增长给现在带来的压力和威胁，主要从三个方面展开：经济、就业、犯罪，最后一句是总结。
（2）current 目前的
（3）weight 重量；负重
（4）drag down 拖累
（5）unemployment 
失业（unemployment rate 失业率）
（6）alongside 除了（=besides）

03、What this trend means in the future of Africa can be either positive or negative, depending on some critical factors. On the one hand, a youthful population usually promises opportunities to boost economies and better people’s lives. It is because an increasing working-age population is a major drive for economic development. On the other hand, lack of meaningful work among young people is playing into frustration that may in some instances contribute to social unrest or unmanageable migration to Europe. Unless political leadership can offer young people something to live for, social stresses like unemployment can make them easy prey to those who offer them something to die for. In view of these two opinions, the future of Africa’s young population is an uncertainty.

这一趋势对非洲的未来可以是积极的，也可以是消极的，取决于一些关键因素。一方面，年轻的人口通常意味着有机会促进经济，改善人们的生活。这是因为劳动适龄人口的增加是推动经济发展的主要动力。另一方面，年轻人缺乏有意义的工作演变成沮丧，在某些情况下也可能导致社会动荡或无法控制的欧洲移民。除非政治领导能为年轻人提供生活的动力，否则社会压力就像失业一样，他们很容易成为某些人的牺牲品（这些人为年轻人提供生活的动力）。鉴于这两种意见，非洲青年人口的未来是不确定的。

解析
（1）本段写青少年人口增长对非洲未来的不确定之处：有好的一面（劳动人口增加），也有坏的一面（失业导致社会动荡）。
（2）depend on 取决于
（3）boost 提高
（4）better 改进
（5）drive 动力（n.）
（6）frustration 沮丧
（7）prey 猎物
（8）in view of 鉴于；考虑到

04、In conclusion, because of the expected increase of young population in the next few decades to come, there is no telling what will happen to the poorest parts of Africa. Things are bad enough today, but they might become even worse before ever becoming better. 

总之，预计未来几十年中青年人口将增加，因此无法预测非洲最贫穷地区会发生什么情况。今天的情况已经够糟了，但在变得更好之前，可能会变得更糟。

解析
（1）结尾段，总结前文观点。
（2）decade 十年
（3）there is no telling 无法判断

本场考试范文

In some poorest countries in Africa, there is an ever-increasing number of people who are aged 15 or under. With the growing young population, the future of these countries can be either full of threats or opportunities.

For the present, it is clear that the current scenes across Africa are mostly bad due to problems related to the youngsters. One problem is that the weight of the young generation on the shoulders of the relatively few adults tends to drag down economic growth rates. Another problem is youth unemployment because it appears that there would be not enough jobs waiting for them when they grow a little older. Alongside youth unemployment, violent crime is among the highest on the planet. Such negative realities illustrate the threats with Africa’s growing young population.

What this trend means in the future of Africa can be either positive or negative, depending on some critical factors. On the one hand, a youthful population usually promises opportunities to boost economies and better people’s lives. It is because an increasing working-age population is a major drive for economic development. On the other hand, lack of meaningful work among young people is playing into frustration that may in some instances contribute to social unrest or unmanageable migration to Europe. Unless political leadership can offer young people something to live for, social stresses like unemployment can make them easy prey to those who offer them something to die for. In view of these two opinions, the future of Africa’s young population is an uncertainty.

In conclusion, because of the expected increase of young population in the next few decades to come, there is no telling what will happen to the poorest parts of Africa. Things are bad enough today, but they might become even worse before ever becoming better.
（306 words)